The current bull market turned two on 10/12/24, making this the 12th bull market (out of 27 total) for the S&P 500 since 1928 to make it to its second birthday. As a reminder, there's no rigid definition for bull and bear markets, but the industry defines bulls as 20%+ rallies preceded by a 20%+ decline on a closing basis and vice versa for bears (20%+ decline preceded by a 20%+ rally).
Today is the 503rd trading day of the current bull market, and the S&P is now up 63.2% since the bull began at the close of trading on 10/12/2022. Of the 12 bull markets that have made it this long, the current bull is up the third most as of trading day 503. Only the 1974-1980 (+69.2%) and 2009-2020 (+93.7%) bull markets were up more at this point.
Below is a chart comparing the current bull market to the eleven other bull markets that lasted 2+ years:
The table below looks closely at bull markets that lasted 2+ years. Below are some of the key takeaways:
The average bull market that has lasted 2+ years has been up 57.5% through 503 trading days, which aligns with the current bull's 63.2% gain.
While the S&P is up 63.2% during the current bull, bull markets that make it to the 2-year mark have seen a full bull market gain of 195% (median +125.6%) over 1,450 trading days (median 1,274).
Only three of the eleven prior bull markets that lasted 2+ years didn't go on to last at least another 2 years before ending.
Separately, nine of eleven bull markets that lasted 2+ years weren't even 55% complete in terms of length at the two-year mark.
On average, the S&P rallied another 84.7% (median 42.7%) from the 503rd trading day to the end of these prior eleven bull markets.
The October 1966 to November 1968 bull market was the one bull that would end just 13 trading days after day 503.
The bull market that started in December 1987 after the crash and lasted until March 2000 was only 16% complete on day 503.
I also looked at how correlated the current bull market has been with these prior bull markets that made it to their second birthday. Notably, the bull markets that correlated the most with the current one through 503 trading days were the 1949-1956 bull and the 1987-2000 bull. Both of these bulls had a correlation of 0.955 with the current bull regarding their daily closing prices. You can see the similar paths taken in the charts below. The S&P was up 62.5% at this point during the 1949-1956 bull compared to a gain of 63.2% now. That bull was only 28% complete after 503 trading days and would gain another 125.9% before it ended in 1956. The 1987-2000 bull was up 54.5% through 503 trading days and was only 16% complete as of the 503rd day. (While there were some 19% drops between December 1987 and March 2000, there was never a 20%+ drop on a closing basis!)
The 1982-1987 bull is the least correlated with the current bull at just 0.511 through 503 trading days. You can see how different the two paths were in the chart below:
While bull markets that have made it this long have tended to go on a lot longer before they finally experience a 20% drop, that doesn't mean there haven't been hiccups along the way. The table below shows how the S&P has done in the three, six, and twelve months after the 503rd trading day of bull markets.
The S&P has seen weaker-than-average returns in year three of bull markets. As shown below, the index has averaged a gain of just 3.7% in the twelve months following day 503 of past bull markets, with positive returns just 55% of the time. That compares to an average gain of 9.26% across all rolling 12-month periods for the market.
What I'd note, however, is that of the eleven bull markets shown, only two of them came to an end at some point during the 12-month window following day 503, so this period between years two and three of long-lasting bulls has been more of a consolidation phase rather than an endpoint.
To wrap up, through 503 trading days, the current bull has performed in line with the average bull that has lasted 2+ years. Two of the eleven bulls that lasted this long were within a year of ending, but the other nine would go on to last at least another 400+ trading days. Looking again at the chart of these prior bulls, I tend to see some choppiness between years two and three.
(1) Charts by Bespoke.com
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